Introducing… Beyond the Hype Cycle
GREG KAHN
MAY 09, 2023
Most of us tend to have a complicated relationship with technology.
That’s especially true when it comes to emerging technologies. At various points, we react to the latest development like an excited kid presented with a shiny toy. There’s the wonder of something new. The sense of ownership is immediate — no one is allowed to touch it. Suddenly, there’s the frustration of trying to figure out how to use it. Sometimes, the kid just gets bored playing with it and the thrill is gone.
Welcome to the Hype Cycle. Those early age behaviors tend to stick around and forge our adult judgments. That’s particularly true when new technologies offer both promise and threat to our business lives.
But the reflexive cycle of amazement…to indifference…to outright hostility is the enemy of nuance and greater understanding. It’s something that as an investor, brand marketer, entrepreneur, content owner/publisher, or even an enthusiast, I’d like to start a conversation about – namely, getting beyond the reflexes of the Hype Cycle.
Discussions of technology tend to be of the “swipe left/swipe right” and “hot or not” variety. It can be fun to cheerlead a new advancement from an innovator you admire. And sure, it can be fun to stand out and trash the thing everyone else is worshiping.
For the past two decades, Gartner has been one of the analyst keepers of the Hype Cycle. As the company defines it, there are five stages of a Hype Cycle: Technology Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment and Plateau of Productivity.
But do those categories provide enough room for detailed understanding and serious debate?
We’re an impatient society right now. I feel the disappointment at the slow pace of innovation as much as anyone. But I can also appreciate the use cases for concepts like web3 or the metaverse to improve education, health care, media and entertainment, and even provide new avenues for community and connection.
Is web3 a perfect ideal of what technology can do? No. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t explore ways of improving Web 2.0 and finding practical use cases to the problems with current interactive offerings.
Consider the current debates over generative AI. One minute, we’re blown away by its fantastic capabilities to provide highly intelligent responses to our questions and create the most mind-bending imagery, all in mere seconds. Just as suddenly, the doubts light up: are we going to decimate the jobs of creators and engineers? Will I be rendered obsolete by the generative AI? Will this technology end up literally destroying civilization itself?
These are all valid questions that need to be discussed. But too often, it’s a matter of one-up-manship. One day, someone is railing against generative AI tools; the next, they’re building their own.
We need to get past the “peak expectations” as well as the “trough of disillusionment.” We need to get past the “get rich quick” bandwagon that often attaches itself to emerging tech.
This newsletter plans to spend more time outside of those two circles and more time examining moments of enlightenment.
Questions I’ll be asking — and I want you to ask and answer: What can we learn from new technology? How is it being applied in business? How is it being applied in society? What lessons have we learned from previous launches? And why do some forms of tech achieve become part of culture, while others lag for decades (or more).
Let’s create a new way of looking at things where we’re seeing the paths of creation, of iteration and of meaningful innovation…
Thank you for reading Beyond the Hype Cycle?.
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Greg Kahn
GK Digital Ventures
Greg Kahn is a catalytic force in the technology, media and entertainment industries, renowned for connecting innovators with investors, growing brands and driving billions of dollars in transactional deals. Learn More >
